This piece debunks assumptions and stereotypes about the Latina and Latino position on abortion.  This concurs with another internal poll by The Hill that I had earlier read titled, Poll: Latinos overwhelmingly oppose abortion bans.

This piece identities an important nuance with Latina/o voters:  “...they draw a line on having the government intervene.”

Now doesn't that make abundant sense?

I am in full agreement that dems should not shy away from this and take this issue of abortion rights and health care head on. We should all get out and vote our values lest we devolve into a wretched, dehumanizing world not unlike Gilead in the Handmaid's Tale (see on Hulu), that depicts an authoritarian, patriarchal government with supreme control over women's bodies and reproduction. You can and should view it on Hulu to view in vivid detail exactly what the dystopian vision is of the white, Christian fundamentalist patriarch. 

This is not at all what Jesus would want. Diametrically opposite and the polls themselves indicate as much.

So folks, if you've not yet voted, be sure to get out this next Tuesday, Nov. 8th and vote your values. When we vote, we win.

-Angela Valenzuela 

Democrats are trying out a new pitch with Latino voters, one centered on abortion rights

Gabe Vasquez, the Democratic candidate in New Mexico’s 2nd District, listens to residents at the recent Mimbres Valley Harvest Festival. 

(Melanie Mason / Los Angeles Times)

BY MELANIE MASON, 

NOAH BIERMAN | 

OCT. 17, 2022 5 AM PT

MIMBRES, New Mexico —  

Gabe Vasquez’s latest campaign ad is simple to the point of austere: Black-and-white portraits of women, a melancholic piano score, and a recitation of his opponent’s stance on abortion.

“I will always protect a woman’s right to choose,” Vasquez, a Democrat, vows, drawing a contrast with his Republican opponent, Rep. Yvette Herrell.

Such a commercial could be running in any number of contested congressional seats, where Democrats nationwide are leaning hard into abortion rights as the November election approaches. Most notable in Vasquez’s pitch, however, is that it is airing, in both English and Spanish, in New Mexico’s 2nd District — the most Latino seat in the state with the highest percentage — 47.7% — of Latinos in the nation.

Just as the reversal of Roe vs. Wade has scrambled Democrats’ overall midterm playbook, it has also prompted the party to rethink its long-standing approach with Latino voters. The party is putting the abortion issue at the center, discarding decades of conventional wisdom that it would be a political loser with a group of voters that is overwhelmingly Catholic and seen as socially conservative.

“These incorrect assumptions have lasted for a long time, and they have been incorrect for a long time,” said Gary Segura, dean of UCLA’s public affairs school and a pollster specializing in Latino voters.

The shift comes amid Democratic anxiety and Republican optimism over a small but significant rightward shift among Latino voters as a whole. November will test the two parties’ competing theories — whether abortion will give Democrats a reprieve or the GOP will build on its gains by emphasizing inflation and crime.

“Abortion is not the top issue. The economy is the top issue for voters across America,” said Danielle Alvarez, communications director for the Republican National Committee. “Democrats are talking about this because they don’t have anything else to talk about.”

The specter of the Roe reversal looms large in southern New Mexico from the moment drivers cross the state’s eastern boundary with Texas, which has three variations of abortion bans on the books. Two Planned Parenthood billboards, one in English and another in Spanish, declare “You are entering New Mexico, which supports abortion rights.” With Arizona, its western neighbor, reinstating a near-total ban last month, New Mexico solidified its status as a rare haven for abortion access in the Southwest.

The decision has reshaped politics in the area too, said Ruth Rodriguez, as she took in the wares for sale at the Mimbres Valley Harvest Festival on a recent Saturday. Featuring a pie contest and a petting zoo, it was a festive occasion for this community two hours northwest of Las Cruces; the fair was paused for two years because of COVID-19. But Rodriguez, leaning on her walking stick amid a row of ceramics vendors and voter registration booths, said politics in the area had become more divisive, and without the abortion debate, Democrats “would probably have a big, big problem.”

Rodriguez, a registered Democrat, is Catholic and personally sees abortion as “against God’s will.” But, the 80-year-old retired office worker said, it was not her business to decide if someone else should have the procedure.

“You never know people’s circumstances,” she said. “You say to yourself, ‘OK, I’m not the church. I’m not the judge.’”

Before the high court’s decision in Dobbs vs. Jackson Women’s Health Organization overturned national abortion protections in June, Democratic candidates were more likely to tiptoe around the issue. The assumption, held by strategists in both parties, was that Latinos skewed socially conservative and their religious faith shaped their antiabortion views.

That view misses some key nuances among Latinos like Rodriguez, said Fernand Amandi, a Democratic pollster based in Miami who specializes in the Latino vote.

“Hispanics are conservative on this topic personally, yes,” he said. “But they draw a line on having the government intervene.”

The Dobbs ruling pushed Latino Catholics more firmly in that direction, according to a survey by the Public Religion Research Institute. The poll, taken after the decision was released, found 75% of Latino Catholics said abortion should be legal in all or most cases, compared with 51% who held that view in 2010.

Many Latino opponents of abortion rights now identify as evangelical, the group of Americans most opposed to legalized abortion regardless of race or ethnicity, said Melissa Deckman, chief executive officer of the nonpartisan polling group.

The Dobbs effect has been most pronounced among Latinas, particularly those born in the United States, said Mike Madrid, a California-based GOP strategist and expert on the Latino vote.

“U.S.-born Hispanic women basically feel toward abortion the way that every other woman in the country does,” Madrid said.

Their mobilization had appreciable impact this August in the Kansas referendum on abortion rights. An analysis by TargetSmart, a Democratic analytics group, found Latinos showed up in near record numbers in the state, behind only their turnout for the 2020 presidential election; of that group, 62% were women.

While polling shows support for abortion rights, it is less clear whether the issue will outweigh Republican advantages on the economy and crime.

Sometimes the mixed signals can come from the same survey. An NBC News poll of Hispanic voters found that just 4% ranked it as a top issue this election, far behind matters such as the cost of living. But nearly a quarter of respondents said that a candidate’s stance on abortion could single-handedly determine their support.

Cristina Uribe, director of advocacy and political strategy at the Gender Equity Action Fund, said it is up to abortion rights proponents — and Democratic candidates — to make sure Latinos consider the Dobbs ruling in the voting booth.

“Polling is a thermometer; we need to be a thermostat,” actively pushing the temperature up, Uribe said.

Republicans believe they can capitalize on gains they made in the 2020 election, where President Biden’s lead among Latinos (59%-38%) was smaller than Hillary Clinton’s 2016 margin (66%-28%), according to a detailed study by Pew. In June, Rep. Mayra Flores, a Republican, won a special election for a historically Democratic House seat in south Texas, becoming the first woman born in Mexico to serve in the House.

More Latino GOP candidates filed to run this cycle than ever before, according to the national party’s accounting. The RNC has spent millions opening more than 30 community centers in Texas, Florida, Wisconsin and other key states and congressional districts.

Two of those centers are in Albuquerque and Las Cruces, opposite ends of New Mexico’s sprawling 2nd District. The district used to be a GOP stronghold, covering the rural southern half of the state. Through redistricting, the Democrat-led state legislature excised the conservative-tilting oil and gas producing region in the east and stretched the seat’s boundaries from the U.S.-Mexico border into parts of Albuquerque. It is now one of the most competitive seats in the country.

At the RNC’s center in Albuquerque, located in a strip mall next to a paleteria selling Mexican ice cream pops, street snacks and aguas frescas, Herrell, the district’s first-term congresswoman, acknowledged the challenging political lean of the new district, which backed Biden by 6 points in 2020.

“Many Hispanics in New Mexico are Democrat — not all,” she said. “But they also are concerned, feeling as if their party may have left them.”

Herrell said the abortion debate was less relevant in her race, given that New Mexico state law protects access to the procedure. (Last year, the state repealed abortion restrictions that were on the books before Roe, in anticipation of the Dobbs ruling.)

“What I’m seeing and hearing in New Mexico when I’m traveling the district is it is converging more to the economy side of things, more about the open border, crime, education,” said Herrell, a 58-year-old former state legislator.

Herrell’s GOP backers have flooded the airwaves with ads hammering her opponent, Vasquez, a former Las Cruces city councilor, as too liberal on taxes and public safety. Recent commercials focus on comments he made in a local TV interview at a 2020 Black Lives Matter rally, where he called for “police reform,” adding “it’s not just about defunding police, it’s about defunding a system.”

The attacks have stung; Vasquez released his own ad featuring a sheriff vouching for his support for law enforcement.

On air, Vasquez and his allies have emphasized Herrell’s support for the Life at Conception Act, legislation introduced in the U.S. House before the Dobbs ruling that would impose a national abortion ban, with no exceptions for rape, incest or protecting the mother’s health. On the ground, Vasquez’s pitch is more varied. In a recent visit to Silver City he told a roomful of Democratic faithful that a win for his party in November is essential for enshrining Roe vs. Wade into law.

“People say, ‘Oh, well, aren’t you a Latino? Aren’t you Catholic?... Aren’t you male?’ And I say, ‘Yeah, but I was raised right!’” he said to a burst of applause and laughs.

Canvassing for votes in a heavily Latino neighborhood in Deming earlier that day, however, Vasquez, 38, spoke about the economy instead of abortion. Conversing largely in Spanish, he spoke about how his family came from Zacatecas, Mexico, and built their lives in New Mexico. His congressional campaign, he said, was about ensuring opportunity for the next generation.

The approach aligns with recommendations from Equis, a political research firm specializing in Latinos that said in a recent memo that Democrats “run the risk of seeming out of touch” if they emphasize abortion ahead of economic concerns.

In Mimbres, Vasquez circulated among the harvest festival crowd before stopping at the cafeteria to introduce himself to some residents and sample the enchiladas. At the end of his table sat Gloria Jaime, who credited Vasquez for showing up to the event, even though the registered Democrat said she’s undecided on her vote.

She had a long list of issues that weighed on her: drugs, the need for more police, the economic prospects for her children. Jaime said abortion was unlikely to sway her.

“That’s a touchy issue,” said the 70-year-old retired school worker from Silver City. She didn’t like hearing politicians talk about it too much.

Still, considering the surge of energy Vasquez has seen from core supporters, he said, abortion is likely to remain central in the campaign’s final weeks.

“We still would have had a shot at this even if Dobbs didn’t happen,” he said in an interview. But, he added, since the June ruling, “I can say that there’s a palpable change on the ground.”

Melanie Mason Melanie Mason is a national political correspondent for the Los Angeles Times, based in Los Angeles. She started with The Times in Washington, D.C., in 2011, covering money and politics, and she also covered state politics and government in Sacramento.

What Happens if the GOP Wins the Midterms? Take a Look at Collapsing Britain...AND GET OUT AND VOTE!

Much wisdom here from economist, journalist Umair Haque on Medium.com as folks head to the polls. You must first know that the British economy is currently in crisis, some of which you can read about here in this piece titled, "EXPLAINER: What caused UK’s economic crisis and what’s next?" He makes a connection to our midterm elections that folks should care deeply about. For example, he states herein:

"The midterms are...not just about moral objections to fascism — ideal-state of democracy stuff, or even January 6th-was-a-coup. All true, and that all matters intensely. They’re also about, though, the central truth fascism confronts us with. It’s a vicious cycle that does something paradoxical, strange, weird — it at once accelerates itself, sustains itself, by never solving the problems it purports to solve. It claims to end economic stagnation and decline — but all it really does is accelerate them. And by doing so, its fire keeps raging hotter and hotter. Britain exemplifies all that perfectly, and it’s not even fascist — just ultra nationalist. Where it ends up though, is anybody’s guess. America shouldn’t want to find out. It should learn the lesson of Britain in time for the midterms — and run away screaming from becoming a failed state like that, one that puts xenophobically finding someone new to hate every month, day, hour, a little more obsessively, over actually being a functioning modern society."

In short, we're not going to hate our own Black and Brown community, women, transgender kids, and immigrants—to prosperity. It simply doesn't work that way. The opposite is what is predictable, meaning ever more hatred and violence motivates a downward economic spiral where Medicare and social security are at significant risk, as President Biden recently expressed.

No, the British case fully exemplifies a very real possibility of a downward economic spiral with austerity becoming the norm. It becomes a state that hollows itself out for survival while unjustifiably lashing out against vulnerable people. Forget about a state that seeks to invest in affordable health care, clean energy, college for all, and other progressive policies that put people over profits.

The solution? Everybody must get out and vote. Doing nothing WILL make it worse. Do read the piece. Haque breaks it all down in simple terms. 

-Angela Valenzuela

#Vote #Vote2022 #SayNoToFascism #Fascism

What Happens if the GOP Wins the Midterms? Take a Look at Collapsing Britain

Why British Collapse Should Be a Warning to Americans to Vote Like Hell in the Midterms

by Umair Haque | Medium.com | Nov. 2, 2022

If you want to know why the next six days of American democracy matter so much, well…just look at Britain. Americans of a certain kind — educated, civilized, cultured — are used to thinking of Britain as a wiser, genteel older brother, more European, less brutish, cloddish, more sophisticated and thoughtful. But now? Three letters sum it up: “LOL.”

The midterms are coming up. And on one level, Americans have begun to understand — thankfully, despite huge resistance from the very institutions which should have warned of it, like the media, news, intellectuals — that what’s at stake really is fascism versus democracy. But that distinction goes much deeper still than even those Americans, rightly fired up, yet think. And what’s become of Britain — it’s stunning descent into global laughingstock, pariah, and failed state — is probably a very good analogue for what could become of America if Republicans take over.

Let me explain, but first you have to clear your head of the notion that Britain’s the land of 007 and Mary Poppins and Harry Potter. Britain does a sterling job of public relations, with such cultural fictions — but the dismal fact is that today’s Britain is a far-right wing failed state. I’ll come back to that. First let’s talk about fascism — which is what America faces.

What is fascism, really? Where does it come from? The sadistic wish to annihilate — where does it even come from? Normal people don’t have one after all — they don’t want to break anyone’s kneecaps and torture them — but fascists do.

Fascism is ultimately a way to ration economic decline. This is going to be important, and it matters that Americans understand it. When does fascism occur? When times are good? When economies are booming? Of course not — when economies stagnate and decline to a certain critical point: middle and working classes implode. When that line is crossed, expect fascism. It happened in Weimar Germany — and it happened in America, too, around 2010 or so, hence figures like me and Sarah Kendzior began to predict a wave of real-deal fascism.

You should know this by now, but let quickly recap it. As working and middle classes plunge into despair — which really happened, and is happening in America, not to mention Europe, Britain, and even places like South Korea — they look for someone to blame. And demagogues, seizing the moment, point the finger at scapegoats. On and on it goes. Now. What does this vicious cycle mean fascism is?

Fascism is a system that can’t solve the very problems which give rise to it. In other words, it’s a vicious spiral. I don’t know if Americans really get that yet. So let me make it crystal clear. Fascists come along when times are bad — during Great Depressions and historic Stagnations and so forth. They point the finger at already marginalized groups, and say, if we just hate them enough to annihilate them, cleanse our society of them, all our problems will be fixed.

Which problems? Problems like falling real incomes, like a lack of savings, like a loss of optimism in the future, collapsing trust in institutions to provide one, widespread poverty, downward mobility. Fascism’s central claim is that it can fix those problems. Through the mechanism of just hating enough — to the point of very real violence, like torturing hated figures, breaking their kneecaps.

The real problem, though, is, that none of this works. Just hating some poor marginalized group — what does it fix? Does it create jobs for anyone? Lift incomes? Produce upwards mobility? Does it repair decrepit infrastructure or build schools and universities and factories? Of course not.

So stagnation only deepens, and decline only accelerates.

Is polling and related media coverage artificially inflating Gov. Abbott’s ratings in the Texas gubernatorial race?

Based on this close, critical analysis of the polls data, citing both methodological and media bias, Dr. Ed Rincón in his Culture of Research blog, points out how these may work in tandem to tilt the race in Abbott's direction—perhaps by discouraging voter turnout of O'Rourke supporters.

Let's not let this happen, my friends. This election is so vastly important. All need to turn out for it. Vote early if you can (October 24-November 4) or on Election Day (November 8).

You can build your ballot at Vote411.org, the League of Women Voters award-winning website. 

Su voto es su voz. Your vote it your voice.

-Angela Valenzuela

#txed #txlege #vote #TxEdVote #RoeWave #Roevember #vote2022

Is polling and related media coverage artificially inflating Gov. Abbott’s ratings in the Texas gubernatorial race?

Edward T. Rincón, Ph.D. Thursday, October 6, 2022 | The Culture of Research

The polling industry and the public recognizes that polls are imperfect measures of political events and outcomes, and sometimes can be dead wrong.  The 2020 presidential election is a good recent example of the extent to which Donald Trump’s ratings were significantly under-estimated, although no consensus has emerged about the exact reasons for these polling inaccuracies.  The unwillingness of Republican voters to respond to polling was one factor that seemed to gain more acceptance in the polling industry.

Interestingly, polls surrounding statewide and municipal elections do not appear to capture the same level of scrutiny as national polls even though they are also susceptible to various sources of bias.  The race for governor in Texas is a good example of how media and polling activities can combine to artificially elevate the standing of a favored candidate -- i.e., Gov. Gregg Abbott.  Let’s first discuss some two potential sources of polling bias, then follow with a discussion of potential media bias surrounding this campaign.

Potential Polling Bias

The most recent poll was conducted in September 6-13, 2022 by The University of Texas at Tyler Political Science Department and co-sponsored by The Dallas Morning News. [i]  Methodological information about the poll is presented on this web site which shows that 1,268 interviews were completed with registered voters using a sample derived from two different sources: a panel used for on-line surveys and a telephone listing used for telephone interviews.  Both English and Spanish-language options were reportedly provided to the survey respondents.  In reviewing a survey tabulation provided on their web site, the following two findings were observed:

·         One question that asked respondents about their employment status during the last week prior to the survey showed that the proportion of retired White respondents (42%) was twice as high as Black (21%) and Latino (15%) respondents. Compared to other national polls like the General Social Survey, this proportion of White respondents is unusually high, and may artificially inflate the poll’s rating for Gov. Abbott whose support comes primarily from White voters.  Whether due to actual interviewing or weighting adjustments, why were retired White respondents given so much weight or presence in this poll?

·         Potential Sampling Bias: The selection of poll respondents from two differences sampling sources or frames points to a potential sampling bias. Despite the detailed methodological steps that described the manner that these two sources were combined into one total sample with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percent,   one needs to recall that panel respondents are not usually selected at random and are usually paid incentives to complete surveys on a periodic basis, while telephone survey respondents are usually selected at random and not paid an incentive to participate in a survey.  Also, online panel members are typically younger, more educated and have higher incomes than the general population, and often exclude people of color and immigrants – a profile that could also bias the poll ratings in favor of Gov. Abbott. [ii]  Demographically speaking, these two groups of respondents are apples and oranges. Given this information, it would be helpful to know the proportion of Black and Latino poll respondents who were selected from a panel or the telephone listing to verify this potential sampling bias and its influence on the poll ratings. 

Potential Media Bias

·         A second tab on the UT-Tyler web site asks respondents to identify their main source of news, and shows that Spanish-language news – like Telemundo and Univision -- were used by an extremely small proportion (2%) of the poll respondents.  In Texas, this is highly unusual given the number of eligible immigrant voters: 52 percent are Latino immigrants [iii]  that past research confirms frequently use Spanish-language news sources.   Even though the UT-Tyler poll methodology  explains that both English and Spanish-language options were provided in the poll, it would be helpful to know the actual unweighted number of Latino surveys that were completed in English and Spanish.  Why? Because pollsters often state that language options are provided in a survey, but that does not tell us the extent to which these options were actually chosen by the survey respondents. If Texas immigrant voter participation in the poll was inadvertently minimized due to poorly implemented language options, one would expect Beto O’Rourke’s ratings to be systematically lower since Texas immigrants tend to support Democratic candidates. Again, a potential unearned benefit for Gov. Abbott.  

·         The recent televised debate between Gov. Abbott and Beto O’Rourke also revealed both logistical and media bias that favored Gov. Gregg Abbott.  To begin, Gov. Abbott’s campaign deliberately defined the debate logistics in his favor by scheduling the debate on a Friday evening that is known to attract few audiences of potential voters and further required that no live audience was present in the auditorium during the debate.  Despite these limitations, an informative debate still took place and provided viewers an opportunity to understand these two candidates in more detail. It was clear, for example, that Beto O’Rourke performed well  by focusing on the repeated failures of Gov. Abbott over the past eight years of his administration – facts that were verifiable by external sources. By contrast, Gov. Abbott focused on Beto’s “flip-flopping” on issues like gun control and alleged statements by Beto (e.g. “Beto supports open borders,” “Beto supports de-funding the police”) that were not supported by any facts presented by Gov. Abbott. Interestingly, it was Gov. Abbott who actually took millions in funding from law enforcement agencies in Texas to support his failed border wall project.[iv]  The main outcome of the debate was Gov. Abbott’s evasiveness and unwillingness to explain (a) his lack of accountability for the Uvalde massacre; (b) why he did not taken decisive action over the past eight years to avoid the recent energy crisis that cost the lives of 700 Texas residents; [c] his lack of support for gun legislation that has resulted in numerous mass killings during his administration; and (d) his support for restrictive abortion laws. Thus, the debate was a significant learning opportunity for its viewers.

Media bias, however, was evident in the follow-up report in The Dallas Morning News by Gromer Jeffers [v] who was one of the panel members that presented questions during the debate. Jeffers concluded based on insights from other experts that the debate outcome was fairly inconsequential and not likely to change the minds of Texas voters unless Beto was able to muster strong voter turnout – which would have more significance on Election Day than “throwing jabs at a debate.”  While one cannot argue about the value of voter turnaround, it seems unwarranted, and perhaps a sort of media bias, to describe the recent debate as “jabs” thrown at a debate.  These “jabs” were very informative in distinguishing the two candidates:  Gov. Abbott as the incumbent who blames others for his failures over the past eight years vs. Beto O’Rourke who voices strong support for policies that will improve the quality of life for Texans.   

In conclusion, the Texas Poll results suggest that Beto O’Rourke continues to face an uphill battle in beating Gov. Abbott in this highly competitive race.  The media’s consistent coverage regarding the polling advantage that Gov. Abbott currently enjoys is clearly benefiting his campaign but also likely to discourage voter turnout by supporters of Beto O’Rourke. But history tells us that polling results are not infallible and sometimes undeserving of the confidence accorded them by media sources. While there is some reason to believe that the Texas Poll ratings for Gov. Abbott may be inflated, there does not appear to be much concern about obtaining an objective, independent critique of the methodology used.  Beto O’Rourke’s campaign has been consistently on-target in documenting the failures of the Abbott administration over the past eight years and is aggressively reaching out to various segments of potential Texas voters.  By contrast, Gov. Abbott’s well-funded campaign is driven by advertising messages that are false and designed to portray Beto O'Rourke as a governor who will wreck the Texas energy industry, worsen border security problems, and promote a socialist agenda.  If the recent Texas Poll ratings have been artificially inflating Gov. Abbott’s standing and Beto continues his successful strategy of relying on the facts and focusing on voter turnout, Texans may witness an unexpected surprise this November.   

It should be noted that these concerns for potential methodological biases in the Sept. 2022 Texas Poll were emailed to the poll director on Oct. 3, 2022 using the email posted on the UT-Tyler web site. No response has been received at this writing.

 

Reference Notes

---

[i]  UT Tyler Political Science Department, Center for Opinion Research.  Accessed at: https://www.uttyler.edu/politicalscience/pollingcenter/ 

[ii] Rincon, E.T. (2020). The Culture of Research, Publisher: The Writer’s Marq.

[iii] Noe-Bustamente, L. and Budiman, A. (2020 March). Most of the 23 million immigrants eligible to vote in 2020 election live in just five states. Pew Research Center, Accessed at:  https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/03/03/most-of-the-23-million-immigrants-eligible-to-vote-in-2020-election-live-in-just-five-states/

[iv] Kriel, L. and Trevizo, P.  Texas has spent billions of dollars on border security. But what taxpayers got in return is a mystery.  Texas Tribune, Accessed at:  https://www.texastribune.org/2022/04/18/texas-border-security-spending/

[v] Jeffers, Jr. G.  (2022 October).   Abbott, O’Rourke near finish line. Accessed at:  https://www.pressreader.com/usa/the-dallas-morning-news

Women Are So Fired Up To Vote, I’ve Never Seen Anything Like It, by Tom Bonier #RoeWave

Encouraging piece by Tom Bonier in the New York Times. Another name for this is Republican overreach, or the "Roe wave." Also #Roevember on Twitter.

The rate of women registering to vote is unprecedented. While women WILL decide who controls the U.S. House and Senate, together with down-ballot races this election, nothing can or should be taken for granted. We must work hard to get out the vote.

Also, on November 8, 2022, folks in Texas can vote for our state's next governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general, commissioner of agriculture, and so on. I encourage you to view this list of all of the offices up for election in Texas in 2022.

If you're a new voter in Texas and needing to register, link here to start a new voter registration application. 

If you're in another state, simply go to your Secretary of State website for similar election information.

October 11, 2022 is the registration deadline for the Nov 8, 2022 election. 

-Angela Valenzuela

#RoeWave #BlueWave  #roevwade #abortionban #abortionrights#RememberKansas #Roevember #kansasabortionban #news #politics

Women Are So Fired Up To Vote, I’ve Never Seen Anything Like It

Women are registering to vote in numbers I never witnessed before. The gender gap has skyrocketed. Every poll we consume over the closing weeks of this election will rely on a likely voter model for which we have no benchmark.

September 9, 2022 Tom Bonier  NEW YORK TIMES

I’ve watched Americans in recent years acclimate to some very grim realities. Especially since the ascension of Donald Trump, numerous tragedies and extreme policies have been met with little political consequence: schools targeted by mass murderers, immigrants treated as subhuman and autocratic regimes around the globe affirmed as allies. While Mr. Trump failed in his re-election bid, a swing of just over 20,000 votes in the three states with the narrowest margins would have produced a win for him, and Democrats hold razor-thin majorities in the House and the Senate.

In the weeks following the leak of a draft ruling in the Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization case, which all but guaranteed the end of abortion protections under Roe v. Wade, it initially seemed this pattern would hold. About three weeks after the leak, a CNN analyst claimed that “the Republican wave is building fast” heading into the midterm elections. In late May, the highly respected election analysts at The Cook Political Report increased their estimate of how many House seats the G.O.P. would gain. The discussion was focused on not whether the November general election would be a red wave but rather just how big a wave it would be.

But once the actual Dobbs decision came down, everything changed. For many Americans, confronting the loss of abortion rights was different from anticipating it. In my 28 years of analyzing elections, I had never seen anything like what’s happened in the past two months in American politics: Women are registering to vote in numbers I never witnessed before. I’ve run out of superlatives to describe how different this moment is, especially in light of the cycles of tragedy and eventual resignation of recent years. This is a moment to throw old political assumptions out the window and to consider that Democrats could buck historic trends this cycle.

One of the first big signs that things had changed came from Kansas. After voters there defeated in a landslide a constitutional amendment that would have removed abortion protections in the state, I sought to understand how activists could have accomplished such an astounding upset. While it takes several weeks for state election officials to produce full reports on who voted in any given election, there was an immediate clue. I looked at new voter registrants in the state since the June 24 Dobbs decision. As shocking as the election result was to me, what I found was more striking than any single election statistic I can recall discovering throughout my career. Sixty-nine percent of those new registrants were women. In the six months before Dobbs, women outnumbered men by a three-percentage-point margin among new voter registrations. After Dobbs, that gender gap skyrocketed to 40 points. Women were engaged politically in a way that lacked any known precedent.

Repeating the Kansas analysis across several other states, I saw that a clear pattern emerged. Nowhere were the results as stark as they were there, but no other state was facing the issue with the immediacy of an August vote on a constitutional amendment. My team and I found large surges in women registering to vote relative to men, when comparing the period before June 24 and after.

The pattern was clearest in states where abortion access was most at risk and where the electoral stakes for abortion rights this November were the highest. The states with the biggest surges in women registering post-Dobbs were deep red Kansas and Idaho, with Louisiana emerging among the top five states. Key battleground states also showed large increases, including Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Ohio, which all have statewide races in which the fate of abortion access could be decided in November.

The surge in women registering and voting helped the Democrat Pat Ryan prevail over Marc Molinaro — one of the more credible Republican recruits this cycle — in New York’s fiercely contested 19th Congressional District last month. This is not the type of performance you would see in a red wave election. Among the mailed and early votes cast in the district, women outnumbered men by an 18-point margin, despite accounting for about 52 percent of registered voters.

With over two months until Election Day, uncertainty abounds. Election prognostication relies heavily on precedent. Yet there is no precedent for an election centered on the removal of a constitutional right affirmed a half-century before. Every poll we consume over the closing weeks of this election will rely on a likely voter model for which we have no benchmark.

The stakes are high. Going into the midterms this fall, the G.O.P. needs to gain only six seats in the House and one seat in the Senate to retake control of those chambers, thwarting any hope of advancing federal abortion protections or any number of other liberal priorities.

Already, several Republicans seem to be sensing that they’re in trouble. In Arizona, the Republican Senate candidate Blake Masters, an ardent abortion opponent, recently wiped language advocating extreme abortion restrictions from his website.

Whether the coming elections will be viewed as a red wave, a Roe wave or something in between will be decided by the actions of millions of Americans — especially, it seems, American women. As Justice Samuel Alito wrote in the majority decision in Dobbs: “Women are not without electoral or political power.” He was right about that. Republicans might soon find out just how much political power they have.

Tom Bonier is a Democratic political strategist and the C.E.O. of TargetSmart, a data and polling firm. He teaches political science at Howard University and is a member of S.E.I.U. Local 500.

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