New Research Again Debunks the Myth Linking Undocumented Immigrants to Crime, by Angela Valenzuela, Ph.D. August 27, 2026

New Research Again Debunks the Myth Linking Undocumented Immigrants to Crime

by 

Angela Valenzuela, Ph.D. 

August 29, 2026*

A recent HuffPost article by Ian Kumamoto, published August 19, 2026, highlights new research that complicates one of the most durable claims in contemporary immigration politics: the idea that undocumented immigration is associated with higher crime.

The study, published in the Journal of Urban Affairs, examined roughly 11,500 neighborhoods across 100 U.S. cities representing about 46 million people. Rather than finding that increases in undocumented immigration were followed by increases in violent crime, the researchers found no such relationship. In neighborhoods where the undocumented population grew, property crime actually declined more sharply, and violent crime did not increase.

That finding deserves attention not simply because of what it says about crime, but because of what it reveals about the power of political narratives.

For years, immigrants—especially undocumented immigrants from Mexico, Central America, and other parts of Latin America—have been portrayed as threats to public safety. Political speeches routinely connect immigration with criminality, disorder, danger, and invasion. Those associations have helped justify increasingly aggressive enforcement policies and have shaped public attitudes toward people who often possess relatively little political power of their own.

The difficulty is that the evidence repeatedly refuses to cooperate with the stereotype.

The study examined neighborhood change between 2010 and 2018 and adds to a much longer body of scholarship questioning the presumed relationship between immigration and crime. Lead researcher Charis Kubrin summarized the findings plainly: unauthorized immigration does not appear to drive neighborhood crime rates.

What makes this especially revealing is how long the underlying myth has survived.

Researchers have challenged the immigrant-crime association for generations. Even the Wickersham Commission, nearly a century ago, found lower involvement in crime among immigrants than among people born in the United States. Yet the assumption that immigrants bring disorder remains deeply embedded in American political discourse.

That persistence should make us ask a larger question.

What happens when a political narrative survives repeated empirical refutation?

At that point, we are no longer dealing only with an argument about evidence. We are dealing with a story that serves a political function.

Constructing immigrants as dangerous outsiders makes exclusion appear reasonable. It turns enforcement into protection. It transforms communities seeking work, safety, family reunification, or opportunity into objects of suspicion. And because these narratives fall most heavily on racialized populations, they draw upon much older traditions in American history in which entire groups have been portrayed as inherently threatening in order to justify unequal treatment.

This is why the new research matters.

Public policy should be based on credible evidence rather than politically useful fear. When research covering thousands of neighborhoods repeatedly fails to show the crime effects so often invoked in political rhetoric, responsible public debate requires us to acknowledge that fact.

None of this means that immigration policy is simple or that questions concerning borders, legal status, or enforcement do not deserve serious discussion. They do.

But serious discussion should begin with accurate premises.

If undocumented immigration is not producing the increases in violent crime that political rhetoric so frequently attributes to it, then we should stop treating that claim as self-evident truth.

The Kumamoto article and the underlying Journal of Urban Affairs study are therefore valuable not merely because they challenge a stereotype, but because they remind us of something fundamental to democratic policymaking:

Evidence should shape our understanding of social problems. We should not reshape the evidence to preserve a politically convenient story.

References

Kumamoto, I. (2026, August 19). In a plot twist for conservatives, new data finds no link between immigrants and crime. HuffPost.

Kubrin, C. E., Christopher, D., Hodgen, C., Luo, X. I., & Hipp, J. R. (2026). Does unauthorized immigration drive community crime rates? Evidence from 11,500 U.S. neighborhoods. Journal of Urban Affairs. https://doi.org/10.1080/07352166.2026.2699123

*Originally puplished 8.28.26 Updated 8.29.26
In A Plot Twist For Conservatives, New Data Finds No Link Between Immigrants And Crime
Awkward.

Ryan Murphy via Associated Press

By Ian Kumamoto
Aug 19, 2026, 02:18 PM EDT
|Updated Aug 19, 2026

While undocumented immigrants continue to serve as conservatives’ favorite boogiemen, they also conveniently happen to be a demographic with few legal protections. By painting them as dangerous criminals threatening the safety of American citizens, many Republicans have justified violent campaigns that have involved arresting and detaining thousands of innocent people, some of them with legal status, all across the country.

But an affirming new study found no detectable change in violent crime in neighborhoods with increases in undocumented residents. In fact, “neighborhoods where the share of undocumented immigrants actually grew saw greater reductions in property crime,” per the research published in the Journal of Urban Affairs.

The study tracked crime rates across a vast 11,500 neighborhoods and across 100 cities that represented 46 million people. Their findings joyfully and completely fly in the face of all of conservatives’ racist and xenophobic claims about immigrants — especially those who are undocumented — being the scourge of their communities.

In order to come to their conclusions, researchers examined correlations between the number of undocumented immigrants and different types of crimes, such as property crime and aggravated assaults. Although there are several studies published that examine the connections between immigration and crime, few differentiate among immigrants with legal status and undocumented immigrants. One of the most fascinating findings from this particular study was that neighborhoods that saw a growth in the percentage of undocumented immigrants also saw a 2.5% decrease in aggravated assaults and other violent crime.

For those of us who are immigrants or have spent time around undocumented people, this is actually not very surprising. People who leave their home countries often do so out of desperation, often to flee violence, poverty and other factors that dramatically affect their quality of life. The last thing many of them want to do once they reach the U.S. is call attention to themselves by breaking the rules.

One of the most fascinating findings from this particular study was that neighborhoods that saw a growth in the percentage of undocumented immigrants also saw a 2.5% decrease in aggravated assaults and other violent crime.

This fear of being perceived negatively is even more pronounced now that ICE has been unleashed indiscriminately nationwide, which has left many immigrants literally too afraid to even step outside. That fear seems pretty justified, considering several cases of unjustified violence and a new plan to arm ICE officers with electric shock gloves.

The correlation between reduced violent crime in areas with an increasing number of undocumented immigrants is so notable that the researchers even make a spicy suggestion at the end of their study: “All else equal, our findings suggest that law enforcement activity to prevent property crime and violent assaults would be optimally concentrated in neighborhoods where residents are disproportionately U.S. citizens,” they write.

Of course, we’re not really holding our breaths for these very insightful, revealing studies to lead to a change of heart on the part of cowardly bigots. The vitriol against undocumented immigrants is already so widespread and has become more of an emotional reaction than it is a logical or scientifically backed one.

But for everyone else who recognizes data, respects human rights and understands the pitfalls of historical racism, it’s evident that blaming violence on outsiders seeking asylum is ignorant and uninformed.

A State's Betrayal: The Dismantling of In-State Tuition for Undocumented Students in Texas, by Angela Valenzuela, Ph.D.

A State's Betrayal: The Dismantling of In-State Tuition for Undocumented Students in Texas

by 

Angela Valenzuela, Ph.D.

Students walk through campus at the University of
Texas at Austin on Aug. 25, 2021. /Eddie
Gaspar/The Texas Tribune

CreditJUNE 4, 2025

I am deeply troubled—heartbroken, really—by the news that undocumented students in Texas are no longer eligible for in-state tuition (Klibanoff & Priest, 2025; Vertuno & Lathan, 2025). As someone who was directly involved in the development of this policy—House Bill 1403 in 2001—I see this decision as a moral and political failure of staggering proportions.

These young people are Texans. They’ve grown up here, gone to our public schools, and graduated from our high schools. They have signed affidavits pledging to regularize their status when eligible, just for the chance to pursue higher education. And now, with the stroke of a judge’s pen and a state attorney general who refused to defend a 24-year-old law, we are telling them they don’t belong. That they are undeserving. That their dreams, their labor, and their humanity mean nothing. It is cruel. It is shortsighted. And it is indefensible.

What makes this even more disturbing is the false narrative being pushed by officials like U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi, who claimed the ruling was necessary to prevent U.S. citizens from being treated like “second-class citizens.” This is a blatant distortion of the truth. In-state tuition for undocumented students does not displace or disadvantage U.S. citizens in any way. 

These students are not receiving a “benefit” that others are denied; they are paying the same tuition as any other Texas resident under a law that has been in place for nearly a quarter-century. No student loses access to college because another is granted a fair shot. To suggest otherwise is to weaponize resentment and obscure the real aim: to exclude, to punish, and to stoke division.

This isn’t just about tuition. It’s about dignity. It’s about who counts, and who doesn’t. The message Texas is sending is one of rejection and disposability. These students, many of whom I’ve known and worked with over the years, are being told their futures don’t matter—not because they’ve failed, but because our political leaders have. This is a textbook case of what I call subtractive schooling—a system that strips away the identities, languages, and aspirations of immigrant youth rather than nurturing and investing in them (Valenzuela, 1999).

And this decision is unfolding within a broader landscape of racialized rhetoric and exclusionary policymaking, where terms like “illegal alien” and “second-class citizen” are deliberately deployed to divide, dehumanize, and distract. The same forces behind the dismantling of DEI, the silencing of Ethnic Studies, the whitewashing of curriculum, and the whitening of Texas colleges and universities are at work here. This isn’t about law and order—it’s about fear of the “other” and the ruthless and hateful exercise of power. 

Let me be clear: this decision isn’t just morally wrong—it’s economically reckless. By stripping undocumented students of access to in-state tuition, Texas isn’t saving money—it’s sabotaging its own future.

Each year, approximately 20,000 undocumented students attend Texas public colleges and universities, collectively paying over $81 million in tuition and fees (Every Texan, 2021). Denying them in-state rates will price many out of higher education entirely. And when enrollment drops, institutions lose the tuition revenue they’ve come to rely on. This loss will hit smaller colleges and regional universities especially hard, exacerbating existing financial strains.

Beyond tuition, higher education is one of the strongest predictors of lifetime earnings and tax contributions. When we deny these students access to college, we also deny the state the economic returns their education would generate. According to the American Immigration Council (2023), rescinding in-state tuition for undocumented students could cost Texas more than $460 million each year in lost wages and spending power. That’s money that won’t be earned, taxed, or spent in our communities.

These students have contributed millions in tuition and gone on to fill critical shortages in fields like education and health care (Klibanoff & Priest, 2025). There are broader ripple effects, too. Without access to higher education, many of these young people will be forced into underemployment or informal labor markets, where they are more vulnerable to exploitation and less able to contribute meaningfully to the economy (Flores, 2010).

Removing their access to higher education undermines not just their futures, but all of ours. And the way it was done—through a backdoor legal maneuver with no real public debate—is an affront to democratic process. This is not leadership. This is cowardice wrapped in legal armor.

But we cannot afford to stay in despair. We must act—boldly, strategically, and in community. This is a moral emergency, and it demands a coordinated, collective response. First, we must continue to come together to build a statewide coalition for immigrant student justice. Students, families, educators, advocacy groups, faith leaders—everyday Texans—must unite in defense of these young people and what they represent. This is a fight for the soul of our state.

We must also pursue every legal pathway available. If the state won’t defend these students, others must. Independent legal challenges, amicus briefs, alliances with organizations like LULAC, MALDEF and the Texas Civil Rights Project—all of these are essential to challenging this ruling in the courts and in the court of public opinion.

At the same time, our colleges and universities must step up. If public dollars are constrained, then institutions must find other ways—private scholarships, emergency funds, tuition relief from unrestricted accounts—to keep undocumented students enrolled and supported. They must show moral courage and commit to student-centered leadership.

Equally important is the work of storytelling. We need to flood the public sphere with the voices of students who have benefited from in-state tuition—those who stayed in Texas, who became teachers, nurses, engineers, and leaders in their communities. These are not abstractions. These are real lives. And the public needs to hear their stories now more than ever.

We also need to look to policy solutions at every level. If Texas has abandoned its responsibility, then cities, counties, and the federal government must act. We need local sanctuary funding, and we need national legislation—starting with the long-overdue passage of a clean DREAM Act. Texas may have failed these students, but we do not have to.

Above all, we must center the students themselves. Their leadership, their voices, and their resilience will guide the way forward. We can support them through teach-ins, legal clinics, wellness resources, and organizing spaces that affirm their power. We must remind them—and ourselves—that they are not alone. They belong. And we will fight for them.

This moment is painful. It is infuriating. However, it is also a call to action. I still believe in the power of people to change the course of history. Above all, we must empower undocumented students themselves to lead this fight. They belong here. Their voices matter. And their dreams are worth defending.

I still believe that Texas can be a place of hope, not fear—a place where every student, regardless of immigration status, has the right to learn, to thrive, and to dream. 

References

American Immigration Council. (2023). The economic impact of rescinding in-state tuition for undocumented students in Texas. https://www.americanimmigrationcouncil.org

Every Texan. (2021). Cost of excluding undocumented students from Texas colleges. https://everytexan.org

Flores, S. M. (2010). State dream acts: The effect of in-state resident tuition policies on the college enrollment of undocumented Latino students in the United States. The Review of Higher Education, 33(2), 239–283. https://doi.org/10.1353/rhe.0.0134

Klibanoff, E., & Priest, J. (2025, June 4). Texas’ undocumented college students no longer qualify for in-state tuition. The Texas Tribune. https://www.texastribune.org/2025/06/04/texas-undocumented-students-instate-tuition/ 

Valenzuela, A. (1999). Subtractive schooling: U.S.-Mexican youth and the politics of caring. State University of New York Press.

Vertuno, J., & Lathan, N. (2025, June 4). Judge blocks undocumented students in Texas from receiving in-state tuition. Associated Press. https://www.apnews.com/article/texas-instate-tuition-undocumented-students-ruling-2025 

© Angela Valenzuela, 2025
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0).

Vulnerable to COVID-19 and in Frontline Jobs, Immigrants Are Mostly Shut Out of U.S. Relief 

On the frontlines of responding to the COVID-19 pandemic yet also more disproportionately affected by the virus and with reduced health care access, immigrants in the United States have largely found themselves blocked from federal economic relief. As states and philanthropic groups seek to plug the gap, this article examines conditions and changing policies around immigration and the coronavirus response.

Even in a period of crisis and against our own self interests as a country, we continue to be exclusionary and exploitative:

"The Migration Policy Institute (MPI) has estimated that immigrants make up outsize shares both of essential workers in the fight against the pandemic and those in the industries hardest hit by its economic impact. Six million immigrants are working in frontline occupations, such as health care, food production, and transportation; they are overrepresented in certain critical occupations, such as doctors and home health aides, where they face heightened risk of exposure. Another 6 million immigrants work in industries such as food services and domestic household services that have been economically devastated, making up 20 percent of the total workers in those industries."

In a conservative Northern California county, Mexican immigrants help battle wildfire

Great story.

Mexican, and Latino, immigrants, generally, have always done the hard jobs.  And they get exploited in the process. It's ridiculous that they get reduced to being threats when they give so much and always have.

At least these days, they're getting thumbs up from folks in Northern California who recognize their much-needed contributions.

Thanks to Juan Marinez Maya for sharing.

-Angela

In a conservative Northern California county, Mexican immigrants help battle wildfire

Ruben Vives, Los Angeles Times on Aug 3, 2018

Published in News & Features

For the first time in its 110-year history, the U.S. Forest Service has spent more than 50 percent of its budget to suppress the nation's wildfires. Fire seasons are also 78 days longer than in 1970s, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Under these conditions, every bit of muscle helps -- and field workers know hard labor.

A 2007 report by the American Immigration Council found that a significant number of wildland firefighters were immigrants, mostly Mexican-born men.

Shasta County is Trump country. The president won the county with 65 percent of the vote. In February, Shasta County voted to become a "non-sanctuary" zone for immigrants in the country illegally.

But for the fire crew of Mexican immigrants, politics never enters the mind. This isn't about Trump or his supporters, or about border walls. It's about the pride of protecting people's homes. Rocha, a Mexican immigrant himself, said residents have been grateful.

"When people appreciate what we do, it makes us feel good," he said. "Even at stores, people thank us and they're happy we're here helping."

The fire crew was trained and hired by R&R Contracting, a private company based in Salem, Ore., and operated by one of Rocha's relatives. The company is also just one of hundreds in Oregon that are contracted by state and federal governments to fight forest fires.

Experts say Oregon is in the forefront of states that have created certification programs for contract firefighters. A sizable number of them are Latino immigrants.

The California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection could not immediately say what percentage of its firefighters were immigrants.

From an observational standpoint, Mike Mohler, deputy director of communications for Cal Fire, said the department is pretty diverse.

"I know we have Russians and we have Mexicans represented up and down the state," he said. "We should have a decent influence, but now I'm curious."

Leaning on his shovel, sweating, 46-year-old Juan Cisneros, a Mexican immigrant, said it was his second year with the crew.

In the off-season, he's out picking mostly oranges in Visalia, earning money to help care for his wife and four daughters.

"This job is hard and a little dangerous," he said. "But you have to do what you can for the family."

Cisneros, who is from Michoacan, said the job is hard work because of the heavy gear and intense labor.

"It can get tiring," he said, adding that while it is physically challenging, it is rewarding.

"I feel important when someone says thank you for the work we do," he said. "When we're walking around people say thank you to us for being here and fighting a fire."

Cisneros said he doesn't like what he hears on the news about immigrants, but he tries to simply ignore it. He hopes critics of immigrants will pay attention to the work he and others do.

"I want them to see our contributions here," he said.

Pablo Araujo, who picks cherries in Washington during the off-season, said the job has been growing on him.

"I've spent most of my life picking cherries," he said. "But now, I don't know. This job is interesting."

Along Quartz Hill Road, where the men were trying to scrape dirt away to get to the smoldering roots of a tree, a man in a white truck drove by with his head out the window.

"Good work guys!" he yelled, giving a thumbs up. "Thank you!"

(c)2018 Los Angeles Times

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