Thirty
years ago, this magazine published “The End of Nature,” a long article
about what we then called the greenhouse effect. I was in my twenties
when I wrote it, and out on an intellectual limb: climate science was
still young. But the data were persuasive, and freighted with sadness.
We were spewing so much carbon into the atmosphere that nature was no
longer a force beyond our influence—and humanity, with its capacity for
industry and heedlessness, had come to affect every cubic metre of the
planet’s air, every inch of its surface, every drop of its water.
Scientists underlined this notion a decade later when they began
referring to our era as the Anthropocene, the world made by man.
I
was frightened by my reporting, but, at the time, it seemed likely that
we’d try as a society to prevent the worst from happening. In 1988,
George H. W. Bush, running for President, promised that he would fight
“the greenhouse effect with the White House effect.” He did not, nor did
his successors, nor did their peers in seats of power around the world,
and so in the intervening decades what was a theoretical threat has
become a fierce daily reality. As this essay goes to press, California
is ablaze. A big fire near Los Angeles forced the evacuation of Malibu,
and an even larger fire, in the Sierra Nevada foothills, has become the
most destructive in California’s history. After a summer of
unprecedented high temperatures and a fall “rainy season” with less than
half the usual precipitation, the northern firestorm turned a city
called Paradise into an inferno within an hour, razing more than ten
thousand buildings and killing at least sixty-three people; more than
six hundred others are missing. The authorities brought in cadaver dogs,
a lab to match evacuees’ DNA with swabs taken from the dead, and
anthropologists from California State University at Chico to advise on
how to identify bodies from charred bone fragments.
For the past
few years, a tide of optimistic thinking has held that conditions for
human beings around the globe have been improving. Wars are scarcer,
poverty and hunger are less severe, and there are better prospects for
wide-scale literacy and education. But there are newer signs that human
progress has begun to flag. In the face of our environmental
deterioration, it’s now reasonable to ask whether the human game has
begun to falter—perhaps even to play itself out. Late in 2017, a United
Nations agency announced that the number of chronically malnourished
people in the world, after a decade of decline, had started to grow
again—by thirty-eight million, to a total of eight hundred and fifteen
million, “largely due to the proliferation of violent conflicts and
climate-related shocks.” In June, 2018, the Food and Agriculture
Organization of the U.N. found that child labor, after years of falling,
was growing, “driven in part by an increase in conflicts and
climate-induced disasters.”
In 2015, at the U.N. Climate Change
Conference in Paris, the world’s governments, noting that the earth has
so far warmed a little more than one degree Celsius above pre-industrial
levels, set a goal of holding the increase this century to 1.5 degrees
Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit), with a fallback target of two degrees
(3.6 degrees Fahrenheit). This past October, the U.N.’s
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change published a special report
stating that global warming “is likely to reach 1.5 C between 2030 and
2052 if it continues to increase at the current rate.” We will have
drawn a line in the sand and then watched a rising tide erase it. The
report did not mention that, in Paris, countries’ initial pledges would
cut emissions only enough to limit warming to 3.5 degrees Celsius (about
6.3 degrees Fahrenheit) by the end of the century, a scale and pace of
change so profound as to call into question whether our current
societies could survive it.
Scientists have warned for decades
that climate change would lead to extreme weather. Shortly before the
I.P.C.C. report was published, Hurricane Michael, the strongest
hurricane ever to hit the Florida Panhandle, inflicted thirty billion
dollars’ worth of material damage and killed forty-five people.
President Trump, who has argued that global warming is “a total, and
very expensive, hoax,” visited Florida to survey the wreckage, but told
reporters that the storm had not caused him to rethink his decision to
withdraw the U.S. from the Paris climate accords. He expressed no
interest in the I.P. C.C. report beyond asking “who drew it.” (The
answer is ninety-one researchers from forty countries.) He later claimed
that his “natural instinct” for science made him confident that the
climate would soon “change back.” A month later, Trump blamed the fires
in California on “gross mismanagement of forests.”
Human beings
have always experienced wars and truces, crashes and recoveries, famines
and terrorism. We’ve endured tyrants and outlasted perverse ideologies.
Climate change is different. As a team of scientists recently pointed
out in the journal
Nature Climate Change, the physical
shifts we’re inflicting on the planet will “extend longer than the
entire history of human civilization thus far.”
The
poorest and most vulnerable will pay the highest price. But already,
even in the most affluent areas, many of us hesitate to walk across a
grassy meadow because of the proliferation of ticks bearing Lyme disease
which have come
with the hot weather;
we have found ourselves unable to swim off beaches, because jellyfish,
which thrive as warming seas kill off other marine life, have taken over
the water. The planet’s diameter will remain eight thousand miles, and
its surface will still cover two hundred million square miles. But the
earth, for humans, has begun to shrink, under our feet and in our minds.
“Climate
change,” like “urban sprawl” or “gun violence,” has become such a
familiar term that we tend to read past it. But exactly what we’ve been
up to should fill us with awe. During the past two hundred years, we
have burned immense quantities of coal and gas and oil—in car motors,
basement furnaces, power plants, steel mills—and, as we have done so,
carbon atoms have combined with oxygen atoms in the air to produce
carbon dioxide. This, along with other gases like methane, has trapped
heat that would otherwise have radiated back out to space.
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