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| Rally demonstrators, Austin, Texas Aug. 16, 2025 |
I was at yesterday's protest on redistricting at the capitol and saw this sign that read: "This is what stealing an election actually looks like?" with 3.5 % in the lower, right-hand corner. I’ve been thinking a lot about this figure that keeps resurfacing in movement circles and decided to look this up.
In their analysis of hundreds of resistance campaigns worldwide from 1900 to 2006, Chenoweth and Stephan (2011) found that nonviolent movements were consistently more successful than violent ones. A key takeaway from their research is that movements with the active participation of at least 3.5% of a country’s population almost always prevailed. While not a rigid formula, this finding highlights the potential for ordinary people, when organized and persistent, to destabilize authoritarian regimes and force major change.
Chenoweth (2013) points to numerous historical examples that illustrate this pattern, including the People Power movement in the Philippines, the Cedar Revolution in Lebanon, and the Rose Revolution in Georgia. It is a reminder that even in the face of overwhelming power, ordinary people, when organized and committed, can alter the course of history. Do check out Chenoweth's excellent viral Ted Talk delivered in Boulder, Colorado on November 4, 2013.
Their research continues to shape how activists and analysts interpret protest movements around the world. The 3.5% benchmark has become a symbolic way to assess when a movement has reached the kind of critical mass that can reshape political realities.
But here’s where we need nuance. As Chenoweth herself warns, this is not a magic formula. It’s not simply about reaching a numerical threshold; it’s about the quality of the organizing. Are people disciplined in non-violence? Are demands clear and resonant? Are movements well organized, diverse, and premised on coalitions of conscience?
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| Congressman Greg Casar in Austin Tx Capitol Aug. 17, 2025 |
Still, the number is instructive. In U.S. terms, 3.5% translates into approximately 12 million people. Imagine that many marching, boycotting, striking, voting, and creating alternative institutions of care and solidarity. That’s the scale of participation needed to shake the foundations of any unjust system. Importantly, many successful movements succeeded with far fewer numbers—but never without the critical mass to make repression untenable and the status quo unsustainable.
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| Dolores "Pinky" Carrillo |
So, what does this mean for us? It means we cannot dismiss the power of people in the streets or belittle the power of protest. I adore my dear friend, Dolores "Pinky" Carrillo, who I always see at rallies and mobilizations in Austin—and often members of her family, as well—advocating for the civil and human rights. Pinky regularly travels to Washington, D. C. to advocate for disability rights.
I love the pride and passion for organizing that I see in many of our youth like Cameron Samuels who founded a massively successful youth movement in Texas named Students Engaged in Advancing Texas and Edwin Escamilla, young people who are on fire for a more just and caring world.
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| Cameron Samuels & Martha P. Cotera |
I adore our elders like Martha P. Cotera who literally motivated me yesterday to get out of the house and to get Dezaree Walker and me to the march that I somehow hadn't heard about until Friday evening.
I love knowing that if I make my way to the capitol, chances are that I will run into many students, friends and colleagues without whom life would feel less enriched. I feel truly blessed and fulfilled by the intergenerational and intersectional alliances and authenticity that is always so beautifully expressed in our social movements.
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| ACC Student, Edwin Escamilla & me |
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| Cynthia Perez & Dezaree Walker |
This is what we must never underestimate, namely what happens when everyday folks—small business owners, nonprofit sector friends, teachers, students, workers, and families—decide they’ve had enough. Numbers matter, but so do strategy, vision, and persistence. We are, as Chenoweth notes, in uncharted territory, with authoritarian regimes learning how to neutralize even mass protest. However, this only makes our work more urgent.
Who knows—maybe we in Texas already have the 3.5%. What we need is sharper focus on our organizing, our messaging, and our collective voice. What is the resonant message, the positive vision, the powerful rhetoric that can move people from passivity to action? Whatever it is, if you can see the smiles on these faces, it's happening!
I really encourage you to treat yourself to Erica Chenoweth's inspiring, data-driven TEDx Talk in Boulder, Colorado.
I hold onto this: democracy has never been gifted from the top down. It has always been claimed and reclaimed from the bottom up. And if it takes 3.5%—or fewer—to bend history’s arc toward justice, then surely, we can—and indeed must—rise to that challenge.
Sí se puede! Yes we can!
-Angela Valenzuela
References
Chenoweth, E. (2013, February 18). The success of nonviolent civil resistance | Erica Chenoweth | TEDxBoulder [Video]. YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YJSehRlU34w
Chenoweth, E., & Stephan, M. J. (2011). Why civil resistance works: The strategic logic of nonviolent conflict. Columbia University Press.
Leingang, R. (2025, July 17). What is the 3.5% protest rule and what does it mean for the US? The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/jul/17/what-is-the-3-5-percent-protest-rule?utm_source=chatgpt.com
Stephan, M. J., & Chenoweth, E. (2008). Why civil resistance works: The strategic logic of nonviolent conflict. International security, 33(1), 7-44.
