Cook Political Report shifts Texas Senate race toward Democrats by Julia Manchester - 10/01/24

Good signs here in Texas that things are a-changing, but too early to suggest an outright shift when what's suggested in this Cook political report is a poll where voters are "leaning" Republican. I'll take it regardless and take this as a sign of hope that people want better leadership. It was shameful to see Cruz bank to Cancún while so many millions of others were left freezing in their homes in the memorable freeze in February 2021. Let alone his consistently ultra-conservative politics that don't represent how most Texans feel or what they think. In fact, he's part of the problem in turning Texas more extremist that it is.

His father, Rafael Cruz, further has an undue influence on Ted Cruz and by extension, Texas politics. No exaggeration. You can read all about it in this Aug. 27, 2022 post to my blog titled, "NBC NEWS: HOW A FAR-RIGHT, CHRISTIAN CELLPHONE COMPANY ‘TOOK OVER’ FOUR TEXAS SCHOOL BOARDS. Rafael Cruz is a leading proponent of a religious view called the "Seven Mountains" mandate that you can learn about here. You can't make this stuff up. 

We must get people who really want to serve the public into office rather than those who want to use elective office for their own pernicious and narrow ends. Me thinks that if we can vote Cruz out of office, that the entire edifice of extremist politics in our state will begin to crumble. Not immediately, but decisively nevertheless. In other words, being extremist will make it harder to win elections. 

However, we're a very big state—almost a "country" unto ourselves—so we must take nothing for granted and work hard like Kamala Harris is urging us to do. Most importantly, we must all vote.

This is exciting!

-Angela Valenzuela

Cook Political Report shifts Texas Senate race toward Democrats

by Julia Manchester - 10/01/24 5:24 PM ET

The Cook Political Report on Tuesday shifted Texas’s Senate race from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican,” signaling momentum for Rep. Colin Allred’s (D) challenge against incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz (R) in the red state. 

Jessica Taylor, the forecaster’s Senate and gubernatorial editor, said Allred’s fundraising and ad spending, coupled with Cruz being on defense on abortion and a trip the senator took to Cancun during a severe winter storm in 2021, have helped Democrats in the state.

But Taylor also said the state will still be tough for Democrats to flip in November. 

Democrats have increasingly set their sights on Texas, as well as Florida, this cycle. Last week the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) announced a multimillion dollar investment in television advertising in the two red-leaning states.

“Senate Democrats are expanding the map and going on offense,” DSCC Chair Gary Peters (D-Mich.) said. “All cycle long the DSCC has been preparing to take advantage of Sens. Cruz and Scott’s damaged standings in their states — and now our efforts in Texas and Florida are accelerating. Democrats have strong candidates running effective campaigns in both states, and as we escalate our communications against Sens. Cruz and Scott we will crystallize the case against them.”

Overall, the Senate map is tilted in Republicans’ favor, with the GOP likely only needing to take down incumbent Democratic Sen. Jon Tester in deep-red Montana to capture the chamber. The Hill/Decision Desk HQ forecaster predicts Republicans have a 70 percent chance of winning the Senate. 

While Tuesday’s ratings change is certainly welcome news for the Allred campaign, he will still face an uphill challenge against Cruz. The latest The Hill/Decision Desk HQ average shows Cruz leading Allred by just less than 3 points. Cruz won his last reelection bid against former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-Texas) by 2.6 points.