From Demographic Change to Democratic Change: Is a New #ChangeWave Rising in Texas and Across America? by Angela Valenzuela, Ph.D. Oct. 31, 2026

From Demographic Change to Democratic Change: Is a New #ChangeWave Rising in Texas and Across 

America?

by

Angela Valenzuela, Ph.D.

October 31, 2026

With Election Day just around the corner, there is growing reason for hope that something extraordinary may be unfolding in Texas and across the nation. Two recent analyses—one by distinguished UT San Antonio demographer Dr. Rogelio Sáenz and another by CNN Chief Data Analyst and guru Harry Enten—suggest that we may be witnessing the beginnings of a significant political realignment. 

Add to these findings the latest Harvard Youth Poll, and an intriguing possibility emerges: Could America be approaching another Obama-style wave, this time driven by a younger, increasingly diverse electorate that is demanding change, even while expressing deep dissatisfaction with the Democratic Party itself? The evidence is compelling, even if the outcome remains uncertain.

In his illuminating October 29 San Antonio Express-News commentary, "Will Texas' Shifting Voting Demographics Influence the Election Outcome?," Sáenz (2026) documents the remarkable transformation occurring across our state. Between 2022 and 2024, Texas gained approximately 688,000 citizens of voting age, with nonwhite Texans accounting for more than four-fifths of that growth. 

The Latino voting-age population increased by 209,000, the African American population by 165,000, and the Asian population by 138,000, compared with approximately 131,000 additional white citizens of voting age. Perhaps even more consequential are the generational differences: the number of Latino, African American, and Asian citizens ages 18 to 34 grew by more than 173,000, while the comparable white population declined by approximately 33,000. These numbers tell us something important. Texas is changing, and its political possibilities are changing along with it.

Equally significant is where these transformations are taking place. Sáenz (2026) identifies the rapid diversification of suburban counties surrounding Dallas, Houston, and San Antonio, including Kaufman, Ellis, and Comal counties. These suburban communities, once associated with reliably Republican voting patterns, are becoming more racially and ethnically diverse and, in some places, more politically competitive. 

Of course, demographic change does not automatically produce political change. Latinos, African Americans, Asian Americans, and young people are not monolithic voting blocs. Political affiliations, economic circumstances, histories, and personal experiences all matter. Yet Sáenz' analysis reminds us that Texas is neither politically static nor destined to remain as it has been for more than three decades. The potential for change is real, provided that demographic shifts translate into meaningful democratic participation.

Now consider the national picture. In his final pre-election analysis presented on CNN, Harry Enten offers projections that would have seemed almost unimaginable just months ago. Treat yourself to a dose of Harry Enten's forecasts on CNN's Youtube channel, by the way. His enthusiasm is infectious.

Drawing on an aggregation of electoral models, Enten reports a 92% estimated probability that Democrats will win control of the U.S. House of Representatives, with a projected 237 Democratic seats to 198 Republican seats. 

His Senate forecast is equally striking: Democrats' estimated probability of winning control has increased by 19 percentage points since August, reaching 71%, with a projected 52 Democratic seats to 48 Republican seats (CNN, 2026). Remarkably, Enten'sprojected Senate map even places Texas in the Democratic column. These are probabilistic projections, not election results, and Enten acknowledges the possibility of polling errors. Nevertheless, taken together, they suggest that the political winds may be shifting in ways that could substantially reshape the balance of power in Washington.

What makes these forecasts especially fascinating is the emerging role of young voters. According to the October 22 Harvard Youth Poll, Democrats lead Republicans by an astonishing 37 percentage points among likely voters ages 18 to 29—63% to 26%. 

Yet this is hardly a ringing endorsement of the Democratic establishment. Fully 66% of registered young voters disapprove of congressional Democrats' performance, while 74% disapprove of congressional Republicans. Moreover, 63% of young people who say they will definitely vote describe their congressional vote primarily as opposition to President Trump and his policies. 

Only 9% of young Americans believe the country is moving in the right direction (Institute of Politics, Harvard Kennedy School, 2026). The findings reveal a generation confronting economic insecurity, distrust of political institutions, and profound anxiety about its future. One important caution is that only 33% say they will definitely vote, below the 40% recorded before the 2018 and 2022 midterms. Whether this dissatisfaction becomes a historic electoral surge remains to be seen.

This is where the comparison to the Obama wave of 2008—remember that?—becomes especially interesting. Barack Obama's historic election was powered in significant part by a multiracial, multigenerational coalition energized by the promise of hope and change. According to Keeter et al. (2008), Obama captured 66% of the vote among Americans under age 30, compared with 31% for John McCain. Young voters were not only an important electoral constituency but also enthusiastic campaign volunteers and participants in an unprecedented political mobilization effort. 

What may be emerging in 2026 is something different but potentially no less consequential. Rather than an electorate inspired primarily by a charismatic political leader or enthusiastic loyalty to a party, we may be witnessing a growing coalition of citizens frustrated with political dysfunction and corruption, and massive income and economic inequality, and what they perceive as threats to their rights and democratic institutions. 

This may be less a wave of enthusiasm for the Democratic Party than a wave of determination to change the direction of the country. If so, it would be a mistake for Democratic leaders to interpret electoral victories as unconditional endorsements. Young voters appear to be demanding something more substantive: accountability, integrity, economic opportunity, and political leadership that takes their aspirations seriously (Institute of Politics, Harvard Kennedy School, 2026).

For those of us who have devoted our lives to public education, civil rights, and the democratic purposes of schooling, these developments carry profound significance. The struggles over public school funding, takeovers, book bans, educational opportunity, immigrant rights, academic freedom, and the teaching of our histories are not isolated policy disputes. They are connected to the larger question of whose voices, knowledge, and experiences count in our democracy. 

Here in Texas, where restrictions on diversity initiatives, growing political interference in universities, and battles over curriculum have generated deep concern, the stakes could hardly be higher. The younger generations now entering the electorate are also the generations who have experienced these institutional struggles firsthand. Their political participation offers the possibility of a more responsive public education system and a renewed commitment to universities as places of intellectual freedom, critical inquiry, and democratic possibility.

I am particularly encouraged by what these developments could mean for Texas. For decades, many Texans committed to educational equity, social justice, and representative democracy for an increasingly diverse polity have struggled against political structures that often seem impervious to change. Yet history teaches us that even deeply entrenched political arrangements can shift when communities organize, generations change, and people come to recognize their collective power. And that's what I and many others see and feel is happening at the grassroots in Texas.

Sáenz' (2026) demographic analysis helps explain the structural conditions that make change possible. Enten's forecasts suggest that these changes may be influencing electoral expectations at the national level (CNN, 2026). And the Harvard Youth Poll provides an important glimpse into the attitudes of a generation that may be ready to challenge the political status quo (Institute of Politics, Harvard Kennedy School, 2026). Together, these findings suggest that what is happening in Texas is part of a much larger national transformation.

As we approach November 3, I find myself returning to a simple but powerful distinction: Demographic change creates political possibilities, but democratic change absolutely nevertheless also requires collective agency. 

There is no guarantee that Texas will turn blue, that Democrats will control both houses of Congress, or that young voters will participate in sufficient numbers to produce an Obama-style wave. Nor would an electoral victory, by itself, resolve the institutional and economic injustices that have brought us to this moment. But there is reason for hope. Our country is changing, our state is changing, and a new generation is making its voice heard. 

Perhaps the most important question is not simply which political party will prevail on Election Day, but whether this emerging movement can help build a more inclusive, accountable, and genuinely democratic future. That is the possibility worth celebrating—and the promise that must extend well beyond any single election.

Tuesday, November 3rd is your final day to vote. Remember, your vote is your voice. Su voto es su voz! Sí se puede! Yes we can!

#ChangeWave #TexasVotes #YouthVote #Democracy #Midterms2026 

References

CNN. (2026, October 30). Midterm elections 2026: Harry Enten's final prediction [Video]. YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wur9BVrXaDc

Institute of Politics, Harvard Kennedy School. (2026, October 22). Harvard Youth Poll: Democrats lead by 37 points among likely young voters. https://iop.harvard.edu/press-releases/harvard-youth-poll-democrats-lead-37-points-among-likely-young-voters

Keeter, S., Horowitz, J., & Tyson, A. (2008, November 13). Young voters in the 2008 election. Pew Research Center. https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2008/11/13/young-voters-in-the-2008-election/

Sáenz, R. (2026, October 29). Will Texas' shifting voting demographics influence the election outcome? San Antonio Express-News. https://www.expressnews.com/opinion/commentary/article/voting-demographics-change-texas-22497157.php

Will Texas' shifting voting demographics influence the election outcome?
By Rogelio Sáenz, For the Express-News | Oct 29, 2026

In 2022 and 2024, the Texas voting age population increased by 688,000,

a rise of 3.4%. Minorities accounted for much of that growth reflecting the Texas

electorate's shifting demographics. Ricardo Brazziell, Ricardo B. Br

Major shifts in the upcoming elections have occurred over the past month.

Texas is an increasingly competitive state with narrow poll margins in the top three political races, and Latinos have been dubbed as the nation’s most important swing voters. From the start of early voting, record-breaking numbers of voters have queued in long lines for their chance to vote.

How have Texas voters changed over the past two years?

I draw on the most recent data Texas citizens of voting age population, or CVAP — people 18 and older who are U.S. citizens — available from the 2022 and 2024 American Community Survey to address this query. Unfortunately, the 2025 data and 2026 data are not yet available.

Between 2022 and 2024, the Texas voting-age population increased by 688,000, a rise of 3.4%. Nonwhites account for more than four-fifths of the 688,000 people added to the state’s voting-age population. Latino (209,000), African American (165,000) and Asian (138,000) newcomers outnumber the 131,000 whites added between 2022 and 2024.

The Asian voting-age population rose the fastest, a 16% increase, followed by African Americans with a rise of 6.5%. The growth rates were slower among Latinos (3.2%) and whites (1.4%).

There are major racial/ethnic splits along the lines of age. While the number of Latino, African American and Asian people 18 to 34 years old rose by more than 173,000, the number of whites declined by approximately 33,000. Yet the nearly 140,000 potential white voters 65 and older added in the past two years is comparable to the 137,000 additional Latinos, African Americans and Asians.

Interstate migration patterns across racial/ethnic groups are also revealing. I calculate net migration of the CVAP by subtracting people who migrated to Texas in the 2023-2024 period from the number who migrated out of Texas to other states during this period.

The CVAP net migration of African Americans (40,500) and Latinos (34,500) was significantly higher than that of whites (21,000). Latinos and whites moving to Texas in the past two years most commonly came from California, while African Americans most likely originated from Louisiana.

The CVAP international movement also is instructive. I tallied the number of people who migrated to Texas from abroad (including Puerto Rico) in the 2023-2024 period. Given that the focus is on citizens of voting age, international movers include people who were born in the United States as well as naturalized citizens. The number of the CVAP who came to Texas from abroad includes 41,000 Latinos, 35,500 whites, 19,000 African Americans and 13,500 Asians.

Growth of the CVAP occurred disproportionately in counties with the largest metropolitan cities as well as suburban counties. The 10 counties with the most rapid percentage increases are all suburban counties in the Dallas, Houston and San Antonio metropolitan areas.

Kaufmann County experienced the most rapid growth at 18%, followed by Ellis County at 14% and Comal County at 11%. One thing is certain: Fast-growing suburbs are becoming less white and less Republican.

Many Texans have cast their ballots, while others will be turning out Tuesday.

Will Texas finally turn blue after more than three decades? A lot will depend on continued high voter turnout and the former supporters of President Donald Trump who plan to vote Democratic this time.

Still, halting or overturning Trump policies and actions that have led to mass discontent over the economy, rising consumer prices, mass deportation and the war with Iran will require Democrats gaining an advantage in both houses.

Rogelio Sáenz is a professor in the Department of Sociology and Demography at the University of Texas at San Antonio. The opinions expressed here are his own and do not reflect those of UTSA.

A Few Thoughts on News from Last Week on Hispanics Being the largest demographic group in Texas: Census

Other news from last week that reminds me of former state demographer, Dr. Steve Murdock, and his many predictions more than 2 decades ago. Read, for example, this 2011 piece in the El Paso Times where he expresses the following:

"I used to say the Texas of today is the U.S. of tomorrow," he said. "I no longer have to say that because the U.S. is where we are in many, many ways in terms of its demographics."

In light of these shifts, we absolutely need leadership prepared to abide by democratic principles. These include shared decision-making across political majorities and minorities and who abide by the rule of law, while embarking on the progressive project of restraining the power hoarding of the political and economic elite, while eliminating poverty and in so doing, reducing society's gaping inequalities.

This is all within reach, but we must elect folks to office with an inclusive, racially just, progressive vision for our state and country. 

In the best of cases, this leadership is knowledgeable and considerate of the wide-ranging diversity within the Latino community itself. We're not all "Mexicans," itself a referent to the modern notion of nation states that comes into being with European expansionism together with the conquest and colonization of America's native peoples.

Accordingly, we're also Indigenous, Afro-Indigenous, and Afro-Latina/o. We are queer, straight, transgendered, immigrant, Spanish-speaking or English monolingual, and economically diverse and stratified. Hence, for us to be in good hands, we need future leaders with a textured understanding for an increasingly diverse demographic that understands well and can speak constructively and positively to this diversity in terms of policy proposals and on-the-ground practices and priorities in such places as work, schools, and in our religious communities.

I get it that for white folks and others—including many Latinas/os themselves—they are feeling a tad de-centered and perhaps a bit poorly armed for this future. Here is where a good and virtuous education comes in, especially Ethnic and International Studies, as well as dual language and bilingual education. Policy studies, too.

These are the areas of study that are uniquely poised to equip us all intellectually, emotionally, and spiritually for what I truly hope will be a movement beyond a past and present that is racially and ethnically charged, to one that is not just tolerant, but epistemically curious and open to the many changes ahead that I sincerely think are mostly promising and hopeful.

Sí se Puede! Yes we can!

 -Angela Valenzuela

Hispanics are now largest demographic group in Texas: Census

By 

Lee Brown

September 16, 2022 | New York Post

Texas Mariachi and Folklorico performers proudly wear American flag-colored outfits at a National Memorial Day Parade. Getty Images

Everything’s bigger in Texas, including the Hispanic population.

For the first time, Hispanics are the largest demographic group in the Lone Star State, according to figures released by the US Census Bureau Thursday to mark the start of National Hispanic Heritage Month.

The numbers showed that as of July 1, 2021, there were an estimated 11.86 million Hispanic Texans, 40.2% of the state’s population.

White, non-Hispanic Texans made up 39.4% of the population, an estimated 11.63 million people.

The growth is even more pronounced in young Texans, The Texas Tribune noted, with Hispanics making up 49.3% of under-18s.

The shift is even more pronounced in the under 18s, with 49.3% now Hispanic, the Texas data shows.

Getty Images

The numbers have been trending toward a Hispanic plurality for years in Texas, with nearly 11 residents of that ethnic group gained for every additional white non-Hispanic resident over the previous decade, the outlet noted.

Of the 4 million new Texas residents over the past 10 years — the highest population growth in the country — nearly half were Hispanic, according to the Tribune’s analysis.

However, Hispanic residents are more than twice to live below the poverty line (19.4%) as whites (8.4%).

The median income for a white Texas household in 2021 was $81,384 — compared to just $54,857 for a Hispanic one, according to the new data.

And while 95% of white Texas adults have at least a high school diploma, only 70% of Hispanic adults can say the same. In addition, just 18% of Texas Hispanics graduated from college with s bachelor’s degrees or higher, compared with 42% of white adults, the data shows.

“Those are issues that are of concern to the state,” state demographer Lloyd Potter told the Houston Chronicle.

“A fair proportion of our population has lower levels of educational attainment, and our economy is growing in a way that is demanding more and more high skill or higher-skilled.

The growth comes as Hispanic Texans are still far more likely to live below the poverty line. AP

The shift comes as Texas officials continue to complain about being overwhelmed by illegal immigrants flooding in through the border with Mexico.

Republican Gov. Greg Abbott has since started busing many new arrivals to Democrat-run sanctuary cities — including New York — in protest of President Biden’s border policies.

The Latino population in Texas is driving demographic growth in our state, representing 95% of total growth. Maps reflecting white voting majorities in half of all proposed congressional districts simply disenfranchise this community. The problem here, of course, is that greater concern for whites plays out in every arena of public policy, impacting the well-being of our state, as a whole.

-Angela Valenzuela

Analysis: Texas government won’t represent the state’s population unless its political maps do

The Texas Legislature is drawing new political maps to reflect the growth of the state recorded in the 2020 census. But their initial proposals don't look like the state demographically or politically.

BY ROSS RAMSEY SEPT. 30, 2021

Crowds march through Austin in celebration of Martin Luther King Day on Jan. 20, 2020. Credit: Jordan Vonderhaar for The Texas Tribune

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In a state where more than 60% of the residents are people of color, the Texas Legislature is proposing maps where white people have voting majorities in 50% of the congressional districts.

That’s not representative.

Texas grew 15.9% over the last decade, according to the 2020 census. There are just about 4 million more people in the state now than there were 10 years ago, and 95% of that growth is attributable to people of color.

White people now account for 39.8% of the state population. Hispanic people are just about as numerous — 39.3% — and demographers expect that part of the population to be the largest part within a year or two. Black Texans, Asian Texans and others make up the remaining fifth of the population.

There is no majority, in other words, and the plurality is about to flip to Hispanics.

You wouldn’t be able to prove any of that by looking at the political maps the Texas Legislature is drawing right now.

A Senate committee has already approved (on a straight party-line vote) a new map that has 12 districts with white majorities and another four where the majority of the voting age population — adults — are white people. The Hispanic population is about the same size in the state, but not in the plans of the Texas Senate; the map has seven seats where Hispanic residents make up the majority.

Four more districts in that new Senate map have majorities of people of color if you add their Black residents and their Hispanic residents together.

The remaining four districts don’t have white majorities, Hispanic majorities or Hispanic-plus-Black majorities. They don’t look exactly like the state of Texas, but they’re more like the rest of the state than the other 27 districts.

The Senate map is just an example; all of the new maps revealed so far were designed with similar disparities between the makeup of the population and the cartographic and political machinations of the state’s officeholders.

It’s not just demography. The Texas Legislative Council — a state agency that draws maps, drafts bills and does other legal work for the Legislature, generates reports on how each district would have voted in the 2020 election.

That doesn’t look like Texas, either.

Overall, Republican Donald Trump beat Democrat Joe Biden 52% to 45.5%. Trump would have won in 19 of the proposed Senate districts, or 61.3%. Biden would have won in 12, or 38.7%.

That’s not representative.

Sometime during the Legislature’s ongoing special session on redistricting, someone will compare the proposed maps to the current maps — either in a way that makes the new maps look more fair, or in a way that makes them look like a step backward. Remember, though, that the current maps were contested for many of the same reasons.

This time, 95% of the state’s growth was attributed to people of color. Ten years ago, the U.S. census attributed 89% of the state’s growth to people of color. Both times, the increase in Hispanic population in Texas was the main driver. Texas has been growing rapidly for a long time; the 2010 census revealed the population increased 20.6%; the 2020 census found 15.9%.

The Legislature that convened in 2011 had the same goals, more or less, that this year’s Legislature has: Draw new political districts that reflect the overall growth of the state and the geographic changes in the population. But they had the same biases, too. The Republican majorities wanted to preserve their hold on state government, which is, after all, what political majorities do. And they were more interested in communities and districts of Republicans than they were in communities of color.

They were focused, then as now, on winning, and not on that other word — the one that indicates every Texan is fairly accounted for and has the same political power.

Representation.

Happy Hispanic Heritage Month, everybody! A way to think about this is if we can get education right for this demographic, we can get it right for our nation. We are nowhere near at a loss for knowing what must be done. Quite the opposite. 

We have decades of research on "what works" for Latino/a/x children and other children of color. This issue is not evidence, but politics. Our communities must redouble their efforts to advocate for quality bilingual and dual language programs, adequate school funding, Ethnic Studies, culturally relevant and sustaining curricula, teachers that are prepared to teach this demographic, tutorial supports, community schools, parent engagement initiatives, university-district partnerships, grow your own educator programs, eliminating high-stakes testing and implementing authentic forms of assessment that promote deep learning, and so on. Higher education is also part and parcel to this narrative. We totally know what must be done.

If you're in Texas, let's also protect Trans Kids of all races and ethnicities. Equality Texas has been doing the heavy lift on this and more need to be involved. It's shocking to learn that the Texas State Legislature currently has at least 70 anti-transgender bills—and growing!  We need to oppose these anti-children and anti-family bills. Our kids are already traumatized by all this venomous hatred and distortion. Here's how to get involved at the Texas State Capitol: https://www.equalitytexas.org/get-involved-at-the-capitol/

Here is an excellent state-by-state breakdown provided by Child Trends of the Latina/o/x student population.

-Angela Valenzuela

Sep 15, 2021

HISPANIC FAMILY FACTS

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Latino Children Represent Over a Quarter of the Child Population Nationwide and Make Up at Least 40 Percent in 5 Southwestern States

by Yiyu Chen & Lina Guzman | Child Trends

Latinoa children (ages 18 and under) numbered 18.6 million in 2019, making up 26 percent of the nation’s total child population. While Latino children disproportionately reside in the Southwest, they comprise a sizeable share of the child population in all 50 states—and at least 25 percent of the child population in 12 states.

The percentage of states’ total child population that is Latino ranges from 2 percent in Vermont to 61 percent in New Mexico. Latino children account for roughly half of the state’s total child population in 3 states in the Southwest—New Mexico, California, and Texas—and exceed 40 percent of the child population in 2 other Southwestern states—Nevada and Arizona. Outside the Southwest, Latino children now account for 25 percent to nearly 40 percent of the child population in 7 states (Florida, Colorado, New Jersey, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New York, Illinois), 10 percent to nearly 25 percent in 22 states (Oregon, Washington, Massachusetts, Kansas, Hawaii, Idaho, Utah, Nebraska, Oklahoma, North Carolina, Delaware, Maryland, Georgia, Wyoming, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Arkansas, Wisconsin, Indiana, Iowa, Tennessee, Alaska) and the District of Columbia, and less than 10 percent in 16 states (South Carolina, Minnesota, Michigan, Alabama, Louisiana, Missouri, New Hampshire, Ohio, Kentucky, South Dakota, North Dakota, Montana, Mississippi, Maine, West Virginia, Vermont).b

In terms of total population of Latino children by state, California, Texas, Florida, and New York each have more than 1 million young Latino residents—4.6 million in California, 3.7 million in Texas, 1.4 million in Florida, and just over 1 million in New York. Arizona, Illinois, and New Jersey (in order of population) have the next-highest Latino child populations, ranging from roughly 500,000 to 750,000. Around 200,000 to 400,000 Latino children live in Colorado, North Carolina, Georgia, Washington, Pennsylvania, New Mexico, Nevada, Virginia, Massachusetts, and Maryland (also ordered by population). Latino children also have a substantial and growing presence in several Midwestern states: Roughly 180,000 Latino children live in Michigan and Indiana, and just over 160,000 Latino children live in Ohio.

FOOTNOTES

a We use “Hispanic” and “Latino” interchangeably. Consistent with the U.S. Census definition, this includes individuals who have origins in Mexico, Puerto Rico, and Cuba, as well as other “Hispanic, Latino or Spanish” origins.

b All lists of states in this paragraph are ordered by percentage of the state’s child population that is Hispanic.

"Latinos Bring New Energy to America's DNA," by United States Hispanic Leadership Institute

I love this graphic out of the United States Hispanic Leadership Institute (USHLI) that I think we should share liberally everywhere. Our young people, in particular, need to know and embrace this very positive notion that Latinos are most definitely adding new energy to America's DNA. 

To this, I would add that we are doing this through a replenishing of our own DNA that tracks back to the native peoples of this continent, a DNA that has prevailed against all odds.

There's nothing to fear and much to celebrate. We as a country need to pivot and engage in less fear mongering and more celebrating. If I can't dance, I won't have a revolution! 😊

Sí se puede! Yes we can!

-Angela Valenzuela

The 2020 Census has confirmed that the Hispanization of America 2.0 is effectively underway. The original HoA surfaced following the 1990 Census. Over the next 30 years, Hispanics made unprecedented inroads into American life and culture. Latinos became the leading actors in films. Our music dominated the industry. Salsa outsold ketchup in grocery stores. Nachos outsold hotdogs at baseball games. Latinos started winning the Nobel prize in literature and science. The era of blending in gave way to standing out. The graphic above provides an overview of the accelerated growth and impact of Latinos on the American landscape. Whether it's making America great again or building back better, Latinos arguably are the driving force of progress. The 2020 Census has verified what we Hispanics saw coming throughout the last decade. Latinos accounted for over half of the total population growth in the United States. Eighty percent of all new businesses were started by Latinos. Latino voter registration increased from 11 million to 18 million, and turnout increased from 6.5 million to 16 million. Latino purchasing power increased from $1 trillion to $1.7 trillion, the 2nd largest in America. The Latino GDP went from 10th largest in the world to 8th, surpassing Italy and Germany. Please share this with anybody who says we are a sleeping giant. ¡La raza no duerme! The Hispanization of America 2.0 is energizing every aspect of American society. Kudos to the We Are All Human Foundation and its flagship program, Hispanic Star, for sharing this very informative graphic.

About USHLI For 39 years, the mission of the United States Hispanic Leadership Institute (USHLI) has been and continues to be to fulfill the promises and principles of democracy by promoting education and leadership development, empowering Latinos and similarly disenfranchised groups through civic engagement and research, and by maximizing participation in the electoral process.

On August 11, 2010, Texas became a "majority minority" state, meaning that people of color outnumbered Anglos. The shift right now is that Texas' Latino population is the largest demographic, growing by 2 million in the last decade. 

Go to the actual Texas Tribune website and roll over the map of Texas so that you can see the percent change in total demographic growth between 2010 and 2020 by county.

Redrawing district lines ahead of the 2022 election promises to be a bruising battle. 

-Angela Valenzuela

People of color make up 95% of Texas’ population growth, and cities and suburbs are booming, 2020 census shows

The state’s Hispanic population is now nearly as large as the non-Hispanic white population, with Texas gaining nearly 11 Hispanic residents for every additional white resident since 2010. Those trends set up a pitched battle for political control when state lawmakers redraw legislative districts.

BY ALEXA URA, JASON KAO, CARLA ASTUDILLO AND CHRIS ESSIG AUG. 12, 2021

Texas’ cities and suburbs are booming. The state is home to three of the country’s 10 largest cities and four of the fastest-growing. Credit: Miguel Gutierrez Jr./The Texas Tribune

Setting the stage for what is expected to be a bruising battle over political representation, the results of the 2020 census released Thursday showed that Texas’ explosive growth over the past decade was again powered by people of color.

And it is the state’s cities and suburbs that are booming, with Texas home to three of the country’s 10 largest cities and four of the fastest-growing.

Texas gained the most residents of any state since 2010, and its Hispanic population is now nearly as large as the non-Hispanic white population, with just half a percentage point separating them. Texas gained nearly 11 Hispanic residents for every additional white resident since 2010.

Texans of color accounted for 95% of the state’s population growth. The 2020 census puts the state’s population at 29,145,505 — a 16% jump from 25.1 million in 2010. Hispanic Texans were responsible for half of that increase.

Non-Hispanic white Texans now make up just 39.8% of the state’s population — down from 45% in 2010. Meanwhile, the share of Hispanic Texans has grown to 39.3%.

The Hispanic population’s approach to becoming Texas’ largest demographic group marks a significant milestone ahead of this year’s redistricting, during which state lawmakers will draw new political maps divvying up seats in Congress and the state House and Senate in what will no doubt be an intense and protracted fight over political control of the state for the next decade.

Texas Republicans hold every lever of power to try to lock in or even expand their majorities at the state Capitol and in Congress. But they will be working to redraw the state’s political maps while confronting the demographic reality that the state is growing in ways that put the party’s stranglehold in question.

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Hispanic leaders will surely point to the growth to lobby for increased political control and representation, particularly as lawmakers consider how to draw the two additional congressional seats — the most gained by any state — Texas earned because of its fast growth.

The sluggish growth among white Texans could also complicate Republican efforts to cement their power, which relies on a political base much more likely to be white and rural.

The state’s Hispanic, Black and Asian populations all significantly outgrew the white population since 2010. The white population growth — an increase of just 187,252 — was swamped by the total growth among Asian Texans, who make up a tiny share of the total population but have seen their numbers grow at the fastest pace in the state. The state’s Asian population grew by 613,092 since 2010.

The Hispanic population saw the biggest growth, with nearly 2 million additional Hispanic people now calling Texas home.

The state’s growth has been concentrated in diverse urban centers that serve as Democratic strongholds and suburban communities, several of which have either already turned blue or are trending in that direction. Since 2010, 44% of the state’s growth took place in its five largest counties — Harris, Dallas, Tarrant, Bexar and Travis. All 10 of the state’s fastest-growing counties in the last decade were suburban.

Hays County — between Austin and San Antonio — experienced the most growth, doubling its population in the last decade.

Over the last two decades, the GOP has maintained its power by drawing political maps at the expense of voters of color. During the last round of redistricting, federal courts found that Texas lawmakers discriminated against Hispanic and Black voters in particular. The Legislature’s Republican majority was reprimanded by federal judges for intentionally diluting the power of their votes; their maps after the 2010 census flunked both the U.S. Constitution and the federal Voting Rights Act.

The growth driven by people of color easily surpassed the growth captured in the 2010 census, which showed people of color accounted for 89% of the total increase in population that decade.

This time, though, the GOP will be working in a more favorable legal landscape.

The 2021 round of political mapmaking will be the first in nearly half a century without federal oversight that previously helped shield voters of color living in states with a long history of discrimination, like Texas, from being robbed of political clout through gerrymandering.

Congress has worked slowly in its bid to revive some of those protections by restoring preclearance, which required the state to submit any changes to its elections and maps for federal review to ensure they would not harm voters of color. The U.S. Supreme Court knocked down that requirement, a lynchpin of the Voting Rights Act, in 2013. This year, the court also continued to whittle away at other portions of the act used to challenge discriminatory districts.

Congressional and state House and Senate districts must be reconfigured ahead of the 2022 elections to account for the state’s population growth and to even out residents across districts that were drawn to be close to equal in population a decade ago but are now significantly out of balance.

But that work is running well behind schedule, largely because of pandemic-induced delays of the census. With Thursday’s release, the Legislature’s number-crunchers will begin processing the massive set of data released by the Census Bureau — down to the block level — to upload it into the system lawmakers will use.

But the actual work of drafting maps, wrangling the numbers that represent communities and neighborhoods, might not begin until next month.

On Thursday, state Rep. Todd Hunter, the Corpus Christi Republican who chairs the House Redistricting Committee, told his colleagues to expect the data to be ready for them by Sept. 1.

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